So what causes analysis paralysis and how can it be overcome and prevented?

There are several situations that can lead to analysis paralysis, here are a few examples:

• When the problem parameters or requirements are too vague.
• When there is inadequate stakeholder involvement.
• The fear of making the wrong decision.

When a person or team gets to a situation where they are not making progress on a task or project due to overthinking or overanalyzing a problem and not being able to make a decision on how to solve a problem and move forward, that person or team is experiencing analysis paralysis. This will not only severely impact delivery times and project outcomes, but also have a detrimental effect on a person or team’s morale which could further impact the success of a project.

The first step to overcoming analysis paralysis is the ability to be honest with yourself and your team to allow the team to recognize when it is happening. The second step is to identify what the cause of the analysis paralysis. This is important as it will determine the steps required to take to overcome the analysis paralysis. Once the cause has been determined, the relevant steps should be taken to address the problem. For example, if the cause is identified to be vague requirements, the person or team should review the requirements, determine where the gaps are or where the requirements are unclear and then revert back to the client or stakeholders to obtain additional information and clarify requirements where necessary.

Other than being able to identify when analysis paralysis is setting in and knowing how to overcome it, an even more important skill is to prevent it all together. An interesting technique that can be applied to prevent analysis paralysis is called “First principles reasoning”. It is one of the most effective strategies for breaking down complicated problems. It involves challenging existing methods and conventional wisdom in order to come up with creative solution. James Clear, the author of the New 

York Times bestseller Atomic Habits defines it as follows:

“First principles thinking is a fancy way of saying “think like a scientist.” Scientists don’t assume anything. They start with questions like, what are we absolutely sure is true? What has been proven?”

The idea behind first principles thinking is to break down complicated problems into their basic elements and then to reassemble them from the ground up. By removing impurity of assumptions and conventions and leaving only the essentials, this approach assists in cutting through inferior reasoning and inadequate analogies and allows the opportunities that might have been missed to become apparent.

So how can first principle thinking be applied? By following three simple steps:

1. Identify and challenge current assumptions.
2. Decompose the problem into fundamental principles.
3. Create a new solution from scratch (bottom up)

Reasoning by first principles is useful when you are doing something for the first time, dealing with complexity or trying to understand a problem. In all these scenarios your thinking gets better when you stop making assumptions and stop letting others frame the problem for you. It also allows you to adapt to a changing environment, deal with reality and seize opportunities that might have otherwise been missed.

One article provided a simple example that illustrates the principle:

Consider the difference between a chef and a cook. These terms are often used interchangeably, but there is an important nuance. The chef is the person that invents recipes, he knows the ingredients and how to combine them. The cook just uses the recipe, he creates something, perhaps with slight variations, that has already been created before. In this scenario the chef is applying first principles reasoning by building the recipe from scratch while the cook is reasoning by analogy by using something that was created by someone else. The difference between reasoning by first principles and reasoning by analogy in this example would be that if the cook lost the recipe he wouldn’t be able to create the dish, but the chef would because he knows and understands the basic components and how they work together. The chef has the real knowledge as opposed to the know-how.

So how can first principles thinking be applied to analysis? Follow the three steps as described previously. Start by asking the question,

“What are we absolutely sure is true vs what has been treated as truth without being proven?”

Asking this question makes it easier to cut through preconceptions and identify assumptions which will provide clarity on unverified information that might be clouding the analysis process and creating the perception of endless possibilities where in reality there are not.

One method that can be used to establish first principles through stringent analysis is Socratic questioning, which is a disciplined questioning process that is used to establish truths, reveal underlying assumptions and separate knowledge from ignorance. Socratic questioning generally follows the following process:

1. Clarifying thinking and explaining the origins of ideas e.g. Why do I think this? What exactly do I think?
2. Challenging assumptions e.g. How do I know this is true? What if I thought the opposite?
3. Look for evidence e.g. How can I back this up? What are the sources?
4. Considering alternative perspectives e.g. What do others think? How do I know I am right?
5. Examine consequences and implications e.g. What if I am wrong? What are the consequences if I am wrong?
6. Questioning the original questions e.g. Why did I think that? Was I correct?

A challenging aspect of applying the first step is dealing with authority figures. If assumptions are based on what an authority figure says is true. The danger comes when we stop questioning and just accept “Because I said so” or “Because that’s how it works”. Upton Sinclair, an American writer once said,

“It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on him not understanding it.”

If we never learn how to take something apart, test the assumptions and reconstruct it, we may end up being trapped in what other people tell us or in the way that things have always been done. This does not mean that you need to reinvent the wheel every time, but it means that every assumption that is made with regards to solving the problem at hand needs to be tested and not just accepted.

Elon Musk is a good example of someone who applies first principle thinking in his daily life and his business endeavors. What is interesting about him is not what he thinks but how he thinks as illustrated by the following comment from him,

“I think people’s thinking process is too bound by convention or analogy to prior experiences. It’s rare that people try to think of something on a first principles basis. They’ll say, “We’ll do that because it’s always been done that way.” Or they’ll not do it because “Well, nobody’s ever done that, so it must not be good. But that’s just a ridiculous way to think. You have to build up the reasoning from the ground up – “from the first principles” is the phrase that’s used in physics. You look at the fundamentals and construct your reasoning from that, and then you see if you have a conclusion that works or doesn’t work, and it may or may not be different from what people have done in the past.” – Elon Musk

After the “clutter” is eliminated, by verifying any unverified information and removing anything that is identified as being untrue, a clearer view of the problem to be solved emerges and the fundamental principles can be defined and understood i.e. defining the trunk and big branches of a tree before you get to the leaves (details) otherwise the leaves would have nothing to hang on to.

Finally, once the fundamental principles have been analyzed and understood, a new solution can be constructed. An example of how Elon Musk applied first principle thinking is how he went about creating more cost efficient battery packs.

“… they would say, “historically, it costs $600 per kilowatt-hour. And so it’s not going to be much better than that in the future. … So the first principles would be, … what are the material constituents of the batteries? What is the spot market value of the material constituents? … It’s got cobalt, nickel, aluminium, carbon, and some polymers for separation, and a steel can. So break that down on a material basis; if we bought that on a London Metal Exchange, what would each of these things cost? Oh, jeez, it’s … $80 per kilowatt-hour. So, clearly, you just need to think of clever ways to take those materials and combine them into the shape of a battery cell, and you can have batteries that are much, much cheaper than anyone realizes.” – Elon Musk

In conclusion, it is not important what you think but rather how you think. While it is easier for your brain to reason by analogy, you’re more likely to come up with better answers when you reason by first principles. This is what makes it one of the best sources of creative thinking. Reasoning by first principles is one of the best mental models you can use to improve your thinking and problem solving because the essentials or fundamental principles allow you to see where reasoning by analogy might lead you astray. Using the first principle thinking approach will remove unnecessary clutter surrounding a problem and prevent people or teams spending unnecessary time and effort on analyzing things that are not important to solving the problem or completing the task in front of them.